Yves Bugmann readily acknowledges that he became president of the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry at a difficult moment.

During a recent interview at the headquarters of the federation, a nonprofit trade organization, he grabbed his black-rim glasses before pointing at some of the quarterly watch export statistics displayed on his computer screen. “We come from two tremendous record years in 2022 and 2023,” he said. “Export volumes were up; the export value was 26.5 billion Swiss francs, and we reached 65,000 employees.

“2024 is much more complicated.”

As many watch brands do not report revenues, export figures compiled by the federation are routinely used to indicate the state of the market.

According to Mr. Bugmann, the main problem has been a decline of 21.6 percent in exports to China in the first half of 2024, compared with the same period in 2023, and a decline of 19.9 percent to Hong Kong in the same period (the federation tallies exports to Hong Kong separately from those to mainland China).

He said the reduced demand in China was linked to a general decline in its consumer confidence and the country’s problems in the real estate sector, where sales were down and millions of homes had been paid for but not delivered. “But other markets like Japan and the United States are performing quite well, or very well,” he said, stressing that sales differ from brand to brand.

Oliver Müller, a watch analyst and the founder of LuxeConsult, which collaborates with Morgan Stanley on an annual watch industry report, was less diplomatic. “The export statistics don’t say anything about sellout: final clients buying watches,” he said, adding that he expects sales to decline an average of 5 percent across all Swiss brands this year.